Sometimes research, results and publications occur over a crazy time interval (six months, for example). Of course, first of all, this is the announcement of scientific publications, for Facebook this is an unheard of past. The world, where facts and emotions are born and die several times a day, does not really intersect with fundamental or applied research. But it is without the scientific component that development is impossible, reducing the time to implement innovations into commercial products is a necessary condition for leadership. And victories in information and cognitive wars. We are proud to present the work “Decoding manipulative narratives in cognitive war: a thematic study of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict“.
Introduction: This study investigates the construction and dissemination of manipulative narratives in the context of cognitive warfare during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Leveraging a mixed-methods approach that integrates AI-assisted semantic analysis with expert validation, we examine how adversarial messaging exploits cognitive biases-such as fear and confirmation bias-to influence perceptions and disrupt institutional trust.
Methods: Using the proprietary Attack-Index tool and large language models (LLMs), we detect linguistic markers of manipulation, including euphemisms, sarcasm, and strategic framing.
Results: Our findings demonstrate that emotionally charged narratives, particularly those invoking nuclear threat scenarios, are synchronized with key geopolitical events to influence decision-makers and public opinion. The study identifies five thematic clusters and traces shifts in rhetorical strategies over time, showing how manipulative discourse adapts to geopolitical contexts. Special attention is given to the differentiated targeting of international political elites, Western publics, and Russian domestic audiences, each exhibiting varied cognitive vulnerabilities.
Discussion: We acknowledge methodological and ethical limitations, including the dual-use potential of AI tools and challenges in establishing causal inferences. Nonetheless, this study offers the following key contributions:
1. Empirically establishing nuclear rhetoric as a strategic element of narrative manipulation, particularly around NATO summits and military aid announcements.
2. Advancing an integrated analytical framework that combines semantic clustering and AI-based discourse detection to monitor information threats in real time.
3. Providing actionable insights for policy and digital security, including the development of countermeasures and international collaboration in addressing cognitive warfare.
1 Introduction
Cognitive warfare represents a new frontier in the evolution of conflict, where the mind itself becomes the primary battleground. Unlike traditional kinetic warfare, cognitive warfare operates in the psychological and informational domains, exploiting vulnerabilities in human cognition to manipulate beliefs, emotions, and decision-making processes. NATO describes it as a deliberate effort to influence, disrupt, or protect the cognitive processes of individuals and societies, highlighting its growing role in modern hybrid threats (Deppe and Schaal, 2024). This emergent form of warfare transcends conventional propaganda and psychological operations by incorporating advanced technologies and strategic timing to maximize its impact. Cognitive warfare has been recognized as a critical element of hybrid threats, which combine conventional, unconventional, and technological methods to achieve strategic objectives. Its operational methods include the dissemination of disinformation, narrative framing, emotional manipulation, and exploiting cognitive biases such as confirmation bias and anchoring.
The strategic use of these techniques is evident in modern conflicts, where adversaries target individuals and societal structures to destabilize trust in institutions and polarize populations. NATO’s reports emphasize the role of cognitive warfare in shaping perceptions during geopolitical conflicts, highlighting its integration with cyber operations and kinetic attacks (NATO Allied Command Transformation, 2023). This multifaceted approach leverages digital ecosystems to create information asymmetry, where adversaries overwhelm their targets with a flood of narratives, some true, some false, and some a blend of both. By doing so, they obscure the truth, manipulate public opinion, and erode trust in democratic institutions. This tactic has been prominently observed in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where disinformation campaigns have been used to undermine support for Ukraine and amplify divisions within NATO and the European Union (Digital Forensic Research Lab, 2023).
Technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence, big data analytics, and social media algorithms, have amplified the reach and precision of cognitive warfare. Platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook have become battlegrounds for influencing public discourse, with adversaries employing bot networks, troll farms, and deepfake technologies to propagate narratives. These operations are reactive and proactive, often synchronizing their efforts with significant geopolitical events such as elections, military exercises, or international summits (Marsili, 2023). The ability to control the narrative in these moments can significantly influence electoral outcomes, consultative democratic processes, direct democracy, policy decisions and support, alliances, traditional media, and overall public support.
Research objectives
This research aims to address these gaps by examining the mechanisms, impacts, and countermeasures of cognitive warfare, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The specific objectives are as follows:
1. Analyze the mechanisms of cognitive warfare: investigate how adversaries use narrative framing, emotional manipulation, and cognitive biases to influence public opinion and decision-making.
2. Explore the strategic integration of cognitive operations: examine how cognitive warfare is synchronized with other elements of hybrid threats, such as cyberattacks and economic coercion, to maximize its impact.
3. Evaluate the role of timing and context: study the timing of cognitive operations about geopolitical events, identifying patterns and strategies used by adversaries.
4. Propose countermeasures and resilience-building strategies: develop recommendations for governments, organizations, and societies to enhance their resilience against cognitive warfare, focusing on public awareness, media literacy, and advanced analytical tools.
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3 Methodology
3.1 Research design
This study employs a comprehensive mixed-method approach integrating qualitative and quantitative methodologies to analyze manipulative narratives in cognitive warfare. By combining semantic analysis through the Attack-Index tool with AI-driven narrative analysis, the methodology captures the intricacies of narrative construction, emotional manipulation, and the psychological impact on target audiences. This design bridges theoretical gaps in understanding cognitive warfare and its practical manifestations, providing a holistic lens for examining the intersection of manipulative strategies and technology (Plaza et al., 2023; Deppe and Schaal, 2024; Henschke, 2025).
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3.3 Key components of the research design
3.3.1 Semantic analysis through the attack-index tool
The Attack-Index tool serves as a comprehensive framework for analyzing manipulative narratives by identifying recurring themes, emotional triggers, and narrative trajectories. Its quantitative capabilities measure the frequency and intensity of specific themes, such as nuclear threats, across extensive datasets, offering precise numerical insights into the scale and prevalence of disinformation. Simultaneously, its qualitative features delve into linguistic framing and emotional undertones, revealing the psychological tactics employed in narrative construction (Index Systems Ltd., 2023). The Attack-Index tool was pivotal in uncovering key phraseological patterns and narrative shifts, such as the recurring theme of nuclear aggression, quantified by the tool’s clustering algorithm (Appendix). This capability enables the identification of key narrative lines and their dynamics, offering a deeper understanding of how manipulative narratives evolve over time. By clustering related linguistic elements, the tool highlights the structural coherence of disinformation campaigns, aiding in pinpointing central themes and their trajectories (Lande and Shnurko-Tabakova, 2019). As an essential instrument in countering cognitive warfare, the Attack-Index enables the prompt identification of disinformation campaigns, thereby supporting the development of targeted countermeasures. Through its capacity for real-time monitoring and retrospective analysis, it not only helps detect emerging threats but also informs strategic decision-making. The integration of the Attack-Index into broader cognitive warfare frameworks strengthens efforts to neutralize manipulative narratives, safeguard the information environment, and build resilience against information threats (Lande, 2024).
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3.14 Semantic analysis using attack-index
The Attack-Index tool is central to this study’s methodology, offering a sophisticated approach to uncovering emotional triggers, key themes, and narrative shifts over time. Designed to track linguistic patterns and emotional cues, the tool provides insights into constructing and disseminating manipulative narratives. Its utility in identifying subtle yet impactful rhetorical devices—such as geopolitical framing and existential threats—is particularly relevant in cognitive warfare. The semantic algorithms employed by the Attack-Index are tailored to detect nuanced narrative shifts, particularly during critical geopolitical events. The procedure involved the following steps:
3.14.1 Identifying recurring motifs
The tool flagged recurring themes such as existential risks, nuclear threats and perceived aggression from Western alliances. These motifs were prevalent in Russian state-controlled media, aligning with broader strategies to provoke fear and justify aggressive policies.
3.14.2 Tracking emotional tone over time
Changes in emotional tone were linked to specific geopolitical events, such as NATO summits or military mobilizations.
3.14.3 Linking themes to events
Semantic tagging connected themes to specific events, such as Western sanctions or high-profile diplomatic meetings. These connections revealed how disinformation was synchronized with real-world developments to amplify its psychological impact.
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5 Results and analysis
This section presents the outcomes derived from utilizing the Attack-Index tool and AI-driven language models (LLMs). The focus is on identifying patterns, narratives, and emotional triggers inherent in cognitive warfare, particularly within the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The research on the Russian Federation’s information space during two distinct periods—November 1, 2022 to March 5, 2023, and January to December 2024 utilized data from 4,000 Russian websites and 3,000 Telegram channels. This analysis revealed that nuclear threats remain a consistent and prominent theme within the Russian Federation’s information landscape. It is deeply embedded in the primary propaganda narratives of the Russian Federation and reflected in the international segment of the Attack Index service’s database.
Figure 1 highlights the dynamic nature of the nuclear threat mentioned in Russian propaganda. The graph captures the daily volume of publications on this topic, showing significant fluctuations and resonant peaks. Red lines mark instances where the Attack Index exceeded 30, signifying periods of heightened propaganda activity. The data indicates that October 2022 experienced the highest peak in information dynamics, with 807 daily mentions, representing the absolute maximum within the analyzed timeframe.
Figure 1. Information dynamics of mentions of possible nuclear strikes in Ukraine.
5.1 Attack-index findings
Using the clustering methodology outlined in the Appendix, five primary clusters were identified, each representing a significant thematic component of Russian disinformation narratives. These clusters highlight the strategic deployment of manipulative content in cognitive warfare.
5.1.1 “Special operation” and nuclear energy
This cluster encapsulated narratives associating the Ukraine conflict with potential nuclear disasters. Aimed predominantly at European audiences, these stories sought to exploit fears related to energy security and nuclear safety, amplifying anxiety about the conflict’s broader ramifications.
5.1.2 “Kyiv authorities” and “dirty bomb”
Narratives in this cluster alleged that Ukraine was planning to deploy a “dirty bomb” to falsely implicate Russia in nuclear aggression. These claims aimed to delegitimize Ukraine while portraying Russia as a victim of unjust international accusations.
5.1.3 Russia’s potential nuclear strike
This cluster focused on narratives emphasizing Russia’s nuclear capabilities and potential readiness to deploy nuclear weapons. These stories were strategically crafted to deter Western military interventions and project an image of Russian dominance and resolve.
5.1.4 Nuclear programs and treaties
Discussions within this cluster revolved around international nuclear agreements, often highlighting alleged treaty violations or manipulations by Western powers. These narratives positioned Russia as an upholder of international norms, contrasting its actions with perceived breaches by adversaries.
5.1.5 Navy fleet and blackmail
This cluster centered on narratives involving the Russian naval fleet and its potential role in nuclear coercion or geopolitical blackmail. These stories emphasized Russia’s strategic leverage and its ability to project power through its naval assets.
Figure 2 illustrates the emotional tone of publications about nuclear threat narratives in the Russian information space during the analyzed period. This emotional profiling, derived using machine learning techniques, highlights the asymmetry in the emotional dynamics of the narratives, characterized by a predominance of negative (harmful) content.
• Negative publications: out of the 68,206 posts analyzed, 35,974 posts (52.7%) were classified as negative. This significant proportion underscores the deliberate use of fear, distrust, and anxiety to manipulate public sentiment.
• Positive publications: positive narratives accounted for only 3,506 posts (5.1%) of the content, reflecting minimal emphasis on optimistic or reassuring messaging within these narratives.
Figure 3 shows the sources of analyzed posts by country where the country was determinable. TOT refers to Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine. Unknown is used for analyzed posts where the country could not be accurately determined. Rest of World is a grouping of the remaining countries with post counts less than 350.
• Key narratives and themes: the attack-index tool revealed recurring motifs in Russian disinformation campaigns, such as nuclear threats, anti-NATO rhetoric, and victimization narratives. These narratives were often synchronized with geopolitical events to maximize impact. For instance:
• Nuclear threat narratives: Russian state-controlled media repeatedly emphasized the potential for nuclear conflict to deter Western support for Ukraine (NATO Allied Command Transformation, 2024). These narratives spiked during NATO summits and military aid announcements.
• Anti-NATO rhetoric: disinformation campaigns framed NATO as an aggressor, accusing the alliance of threatening Russian sovereignty (Brusylovska and Maksymenko, 2023; Benkő and Biczók, 2024).
Figure 3. Post count by attributable country source.
Temporal analysis revealed that shifts in narrative tone coincided with key geopolitical events. For example, during high-profile NATO meetings, Russian narratives shifted from reassurance to hostility, correlating with announcements of increased military aid to Ukraine (Monaghan, 2020). Supplementing the above analysis, data extracted from the Attack Index database demonstrates a strong correlation between nuclear threat narratives and significant geopolitical meetings. In particular, the Attack Index values leading up to and following high-profile events such as the Ramstein meetings, NATO and EU summits, and G20 sessions suggest a shift in Russian disinformation tactics. The data reveals that the topic of nuclear strikes often gains resonance before these events, with the Attack Index values peaking just ahead of these critical moments. This pattern reflects an intentional effort to preemptively shape global discourse around nuclear escalation and influence international decision-making regarding military aid to Ukraine. Disinformation intensified during economic sanctions, leveraging themes of Western hypocrisy and Russian victimhood to bolster domestic support (NATO Allied Command Transformation, 2023; Deppe and Schaal, 2024). Russian state-controlled media persistently emphasizes nuclear threat narratives as a core component of its disinformation strategy. Analysis reveals that these narratives dominate both domestic and international segments of the Attack-Index database, reinforcing their importance in Russia’s cognitive warfare arsenal between 2022 and 2024. This tactic underscores the Kremlin’s reliance on nuclear rhetoric to manipulate perceptions and frame geopolitical discourse. The volume of nuclear threat mentions within Russian propaganda exhibits a resonant pattern, with significant peaks corresponding to pivotal geopolitical events. For example, during October 2022, mentions reached an absolute maximum of 807 instances per day, coinciding with heightened tensions in NATO-Ukraine relations. This temporal alignment indicates an intentional effort to exploit critical moments for maximum psychological impact.
Figure 4 illustrates the resonance values of the Attack Index on a temporal axis, plotted alongside information dynamics related to the Ramstein meetings, NATO and EU summits, and G20 sessions. The figure illustrates the strategic synchronization of disinformation campaigns with critical international milestones to maximize psychological and political impact. The data reveal a marked evolution in narrative synchronization. Note the blue and black columns that represent peaks in resonance values that occur predominantly before key international events, indicating a deliberate effort to shape narratives and public sentiment preemptively. This transition from reactive to proactive disinformation tactics underscores the adaptability of cognitive warfare strategies, particularly in leveraging nuclear rhetoric as a tool for psychological and strategic manipulation.
Figure 4. Temporal resonance values of the attack index over time, highlighting peaks in narrative activity preceding key geopolitical events.
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7.3 Real-time monitoring and decision support
The integration of tools like the Attack-Index into real-time monitoring systems provides an invaluable resource for decision-makers. These systems can deliver actionable intelligence by tracking disinformation patterns and emotional appeals across digital platforms, enabling a proactive approach to cognitive warfare. For example, governments and international organizations could deploy real-time monitoring dashboards to analyze the spread of narratives during high-stakes negotiations or elections, informing strategic decisions and communication policies (NATO Allied Command Transformation, 2024; Index Systems Ltd., 2023).
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9 Conclusion
This study provides a detailed exploration of cognitive warfare, focusing on its mechanisms, impacts, and strategic dimensions within the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Employing a robust methodological framework that integrates semantic analysis tools like the Attack-Index and AI-driven approaches, the research sheds light on constructing and disseminating manipulative narratives. The findings illustrate the sophistication of modern cognitive warfare, characterized by emotional exploitation, narrative synchronization, and the strategic use of technological tools. This research contributes to the broader understanding of cognitive warfare as a critical element of contemporary hybrid conflicts by offering actionable insights into countering disinformation. In summary, this research makes significant contributions to the understanding of cognitive warfare, particularly its application during the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The paper’s key contributions include:
1. Establishing nuclear rhetoric as a strategic tool within manipulative narratives, highlighting its synchronization with geopolitical events such as NATO summits and military aid meetings.
2. Introducing an innovative analytical framework that combines semantic analysis and AI-driven methodologies, enhancing the detection and prediction of disinformation narratives.
3. Providing actionable insights for crafting countermeasures, with a focus on the importance of real-time monitoring systems and international collaboration to address the transnational challenges posed by cognitive warfare.
By addressing these dimensions, the research bridges critical gaps in understanding cognitive warfare’s mechanisms, impacts, and countermeasures, offering both theoretical and practical advancements for mitigating disinformation in contemporary conflicts.
Authors:
Andrii Paziuk
Dmytro Lande
Elina Shnurko-Tabakova
Phillip Kingston
Full article you can find via link at Frontiers
